Citi Lifts Gold Target to $3,500/oz on Tariff Fears and Geopolitical Tensions

Citi this week revised its near-term gold forecast to $3,500 per ounce, up from a $3,000-$3,300 range, driven by renewed U.S. tariff threats against the EU and elevated geopolitical risks. Over the next few weeks, Citi sees gold trading between $3,100 and $3,500 as investors flock to safe havens—data you can monitor in real time via the Commodities API.

Drivers Behind the Upgrade

1. Tariff Escalation: Friday's announcement of a potential 50% U.S. tariff on EU goods lifted gold's risk premium—later delayed to early July—highlighting the metal's role as a hedge against policy uncertainty. Track these key tariff deadlines in the Economics Calendar API.

2. Geopolitical Flashpoints: Heightened tensions in the Middle East and Asia have intensified safe-haven demand, underpinning bullion's bid.

Why Citi Remains Cautious Long-Term

• Political Cycle Risks: With U.S. midterm elections approaching and potential Fed rate cuts on the horizon, Citi expects growth and equity-driven upside to reduce gold's allure.

• Record Household Holdings: U.S. households now hold the most private gold in 50 years, limiting the pool of fresh physical buyers.

Other Precious Metals Outlook

• Platinum: Citi keeps its $1,050/oz target, noting current gains are largely headline-driven and that sustained upside requires stronger industrial demand.

• Palladium: The $900/oz target remains intact, as recent rallies have attracted producer hedging and short-selling pressure.

Citi's shift underscores how quickly policy developments can swing gold's trajectory—making real-time commodity and event feeds essential for positioning around bullion's next move.