Global Markets Hold Breath After U.S.–Iran Strikes: Oil, Equities & Safe-Haven Flows in Focus

Over the weekend, U.S. forces joined Israel in striking Iran's nuclear and missile facilities—yet come Monday, global equities barely flinched, oil spiked briefly to five-month highs, and the dollar gained ground. Investors are in “wait-and-see” mode, parsing every statement from Tehran, Tel Aviv, and Washington. Here's a comprehensive look at:

1. Market context: equities, oil and FX moves

2. Analyst perspectives: CBA, Saxo, TD, Mizuho, OCBC

3. Inflation & Fed-cut pricing under pressure

4. Safe-haven dynamics: gold and Treasuries

5. Two smart API embeds for live commodities and FX data

6. Actionable takeaways and risk controls

7. Upcoming data-release watchlist

Reading time: ~11 minutes

1. Market Context: Subdued Equities, Spiking Oil, Firm Dollar

• Global shares: Slight declines Monday, as the MSCI World index slipped 0.5%.

• Oil prices: Brent briefly touched $78/bbl (its highest since January), WTI near $75.

• Dollar: DXY jumped 0.6%, buoyed by safe-haven flows and hawkish Fed repricing.

• Equity breadth: Defensive sectors outperformed; cyclicals underperformed modestly.

Despite the sharp Friday sell-off in the S&P 500 (-1.2%), investors have largely viewed this as a contained skirmish rather than the onset of sustained regional war.

2. Analyst Perspectives: A Spectrum of Caution

• Carol Kong (CBA): “Muted reaction so far… markets more worried about oil-driven inflation than economic fallout. Safe-haven currencies will benefit if conflict escalates.”

• Charu Chanana (Saxo): “Treated as one-off event… could even be seen as de-escalation if Iran's nuclear program is set back.”

• Prashant Newnaha (TD): “Price action implies short-lived conflict—escalation leads to de-escalation.”

• Shoki Omori (Mizuho): “JGB curve flattening expectations faded, and dollar buying overshadowed risk trades.”

• Vasu Menon (OCBC): “'Shock and awe' may deter aggressive Iranian response… but volatility ahead.”

Across these views, a common thread emerges: secondary effects (oil, inflation, Fed) matter more than direct equity exposure.

3. The Inflation & Fed-Cut Conundrum

1. Oil-driven inflation: A $5/barrel rise adds ~0.05-0.1 ppt to headline CPI within one quarter.

2. Fed-cut pricing: Markets trimmed year-end rate-cut expectations by ~15 bp after the oil spike.

3. Tariff interplay: With President Trump's tariffs still a wild card, any oil-shock-driven inflation could delay Fed easing further.

Pro Tip: Monitor upcoming PCE and CPI release dates and consensus forecasts via the Economics Calendar & Data API to anticipate changes in Fed expectations.
Economics Calendar & Data API

4. Safe-Haven Dynamics: Gold, Bonds & the Dollar

• Gold: Popped to $2,150/oz as real rates fell; analysts at OCBC see a path to $3,900 over 12 months.

• Treasuries: 10-year yields dropped 8 bp as investors bought Treasuries; the 2Y-10Y curve steepened slightly.

• Dollar: DXY's 0.6% gain underscores its role as the go-to haven when headlines heat up.

Embed FX Data: Rather than static charts, pull live USD, EUR, JPY and GBP spot and forward rates via the Forex Daily API, which “provides historical and real-time FX rates for several currency pairs.”
Forex Daily API

Tracking these flows in real time helps you gauge when the “risk-off” impulse is peaking.

5. Actionable Takeaways & Risk Controls

These setups balance momentum signals with strict stops, crucial when conflict narratives can flip sentiment overnight.

6. This Week's Key Data Releases

• Monday: ISM Manufacturing, Existing Home Sales

• Tuesday: Consumer Confidence (Conference Board)

• Wednesday: Fed Minutes, Jobless Claims

• Friday: May PCE Price Index (core PCE Fed's preferred gauge)

Use the Economics Calendar & Data API to flag any inflation surprises that could ratchet Fed-cut bets and equity valuations.

Final Thoughts

The U.S. strike on Iran has injected fresh uncertainty—but so far, markets are looking through the headlines, focusing on oil-inflation-Fed dynamics and safe-haven flows. By coupling deep analyst insight with real-time API tools, you'll not only interpret the immediate knee-jerk reactions but also anticipate the secondary ripples in inflation, policy, and risk assets.

Embed the Commodities List API and Forex Daily API to keep your clients and models perpetually up to date—and stay a step ahead in this ever-evolving geopolitical storm.