Benchmark Reaffirms Shopify Buy Rating, Sees Monetization Gains from Checkout Shift

Benchmark reiterated its Buy rating on Shopify (NASDAQ:SHOP) with a $125 price target, pointing to key advantages emerging from the company’s transition in how shoppers are directed through online checkout.

While acknowledging potential short-term disruption as merchants and gross merchandise volume (GMV) adapt to the new flow, the firm sees two major long-term benefits for Shopify. First, the transition offers improved visibility into conversion data, enhancing the performance of internal advertising tools like Shop Campaigns. Second, by shifting more transactions directly to merchant sites, Shopify stands to increase adoption of its in-house payment solution, Shop Pay.

Previously, many transactions through Facebook and Instagram shops used third-party gateways such as Meta Pay or PayPal Express. With the new checkout flow pushing shoppers to Shopify-hosted merchant pages, more of those transactions will now run through Shop Pay—particularly via Apple Pay and the Shop Pay button—boosting Shopify’s take rate and gross profit per transaction.

In short, the firm sees stronger monetization through greater control over payments and deeper ad optimization, reinforcing the long-term growth story despite any near-term conversion frictions.