Bernstein Initiates Coverage on Coinbase With Outperform Rating, Sees Strong Growth Potential

Coinbase Global (NASDAQ:COIN) has received a new Outperform rating from Bernstein SocGen Group analysts, who set a price target of $310, citing massive growth potential driven by regulatory tailwinds and market expansion.

As the largest U.S. crypto exchange, Coinbase controls 66% of the domestic market with over $400 billion in assets and approximately 10 million active users. The firm sees regulatory clarity under a pro-crypto Trump administration as a major catalyst, positioning the U.S. as the "crypto capital of the world" and driving institutional adoption of digital assets.

While some investors worry about rising competition and pricing pressure, Bernstein argues that these concerns overlook the Total Addressable Market (TAM) expansion from the re-shoring of global crypto markets back to the U.S. The firm expects Coinbase’s earnings per share to grow at a CAGR of 38%, with estimates 30% ahead of consensus for 2025 and 61% above for 2026.

Bernstein anticipates strong regulatory developments, including a Bitcoin strategic reserve (already implemented), bank adoption of digital assets (SAB 121 - completed), a stablecoin bill (expected in the first half of 2025), and new legislation clarifying digital asset market structure in the second half of 2025.

Despite potential market share slipping from 66% to 60% over the next two years and a 20% decline in retail pricing to maintain dominance, Bernstein forecasts a 34% CAGR in trading revenue from 2024-2026, which is 47% above current 2026 consensus estimates.