UBS Raises Tesla Target on Robotaxi Hype, But Maintains Sell on Valuation Concerns

UBS lifted its price target on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) to $215 from $190 while reiterating a Sell rating, pointing to growing investor excitement around the company's autonomous ride-hailing ambitions—but cautioning that much of the upside is already reflected in the stock.

Tesla's recent launch of a robotaxi service in Austin has intensified focus on its long-term potential in self-driving mobility. UBS estimates that if everything aligns—technology, regulatory approval, and large-scale network deployment—the opportunity could translate into a 2.3 million vehicle fleet by 2040 generating roughly $200 billion in annual revenue.

The firm modeled this robotaxi scenario and values the segment at around $99 per share. However, even when incorporating that into a broader sum-of-the-parts analysis, UBS remains skeptical of Tesla’s current valuation. The firm argues that the market has already priced in much of the anticipated growth from autonomy and other future technologies like humanoid robots.

While acknowledging Tesla’s strong positioning, UBS maintains a cautious stance, viewing the stock as fully valued relative to its underlying fundamentals and execution risk.