GLJ Research Flags Overly Optimistic Q2 Delivery Forecasts for Tesla

GLJ Research's Gordon Johnson warns that Wall Street's consensus for Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) second‑quarter delivery growth may be significantly overstated, given rising trade tensions and early sales data indicating slowdowns in key regions.

Key Takeaways from GLJ Research

• Consensus vs. Reality

  • “The best investing opportunities arise when there are dislocations between what Consensus expects vs. what is most likely to happen,” writes Johnson, suggesting a material gap for Tesla deliveries.

• Challenging Projections

  • Johnson critiques independent analyst Troy Teslike's forecast of:

    1. 27% quarter‑over‑quarter growth in Europe

    2. 25% growth in China

    3. 15% growth in the U.S.

    4. 41% growth in Other Markets

  • He points to Tesla's own data showing a 32.3% year‑on‑year decline in China deliveries in the first half of the quarter.

Trade War Headwinds

• 2018 Precedent

  • The 2018 U.S.‑China trade war imposed a 25% reciprocal tariff on U.S.‑made vehicles, materially denting Tesla's competitiveness.

• Current Tensions

  • With tariffs now at 145% on some Chinese exports and Beijing retaliating, Johnson warns that similar forces could again hamper Tesla's global delivery volumes.

Brand Sentiment in Europe

• Elon Musk's Polarizing Image

  • Musk's favorability in Europe is near record lows—net -53 in the U.K. and -52 in Germany (YouGov, Jan 2025)—potentially curbing demand in a critical market.

Looking Ahead: Earnings and Delivery Announcements

• Earnings as a Catalyst

  • Tesla's Q2 earnings release will provide official delivery figures and management commentary, a crucial test of these forecasts.

• Track the Date

  • Investors can monitor Tesla's upcoming earnings date via the
    🔗 Earnings Calendar API from Financial Modeling Prep, which lists scheduled reports and actual delivery statistics once released.

Johnson's analysis underscores a potential disconnect between bullish delivery models and on‑the‑ground sales data, suggesting investors should prepare for a possible downward revision in Tesla's Q2 performance.