Gold's Rally to Persist in 2025, Predicts UBS

Gold, trading around $2,650/oz, is poised for further gains in 2025, according to UBS strategists. The metal has risen 28% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the S&P 500.

Key Drivers for Gold's Continued Upside:

1. Central Bank Accumulation:

   • October saw the highest monthly gold purchases by global central banks in 2023, per IMF data.
   • UBS revised its 2024 forecast for official sector gold purchases to 982 metric tons, projecting a similar trend for 2025 with over 900 metric tons expected.

2. De-dollarization Efforts:

   • Central banks are diversifying reserves, with gold purchases driven by efforts to reduce reliance on the US dollar.

3. Investor Demand for Safe Havens:

   • Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, coupled with fiscal and trade uncertainties, are bolstering gold's appeal as a hedge.
   • Inflows to gold ETFs are expected to rise amid market volatility.

While rising US Treasury yields and a strong US dollar have capped short-term gains, UBS remains optimistic about sustained momentum in gold prices as global economic and political conditions evolve.

Market Data Insights

1. Commodities API:

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2. Economic Calendar API:

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