July Rate Cut in Focus as Fed Signals Shift Amid Trump Pressure

Investor bets on a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have started shifting from September to as early as July, following dovish signals from key Fed officials. Vice Chair Michelle Bowman, speaking in Prague on Monday, said she would support a rate cut “as soon as our next meeting” if inflation continues to trend lower.

This sentiment echoes similar remarks by Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who emphasized that temporary price increases tied to trade tariffs shouldn't delay monetary easing. Their comments have added fuel to growing market speculation that the July 30 FOMC meeting could mark the start of rate cuts.

Fed Signals and Market Reaction

The probability of a 25 basis point cut in July has climbed to 23.5%, up from 15% last week, according to CME Fed Fund futures data. This shift aligns with cooling inflation trends observed in recent months.

To track these evolving macroeconomic indicators, including inflation and unemployment data, investors can rely on the Economics Calendar API, which consolidates key upcoming releases such as CPI, Core PCE, and Fed meeting dates.

Political Pressure and Powell's Position

President Donald Trump has been openly critical of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, accusing him of acting too slowly. Over the weekend, Trump reignited his public pressure campaign, stating Powell could “save up to $1 trillion per year on interest payments” with timely rate cuts.

Although Powell has remained cautious, his leadership is increasingly under scrutiny. With the Fed's neutral rate policy now a major political and market talking point, July's meeting could become a pivotal moment in this cycle.

What to Watch

Market sentiment is being driven not just by Fed commentary, but also by actual data. Investors should monitor the coming weeks closely:

• Inflation and wage prints

• Employment data

• Updated economic forecasts

• Central bank speeches

For a real-time look at changing inflation metrics and Fed-related signals, the Interest Rate Indicators via Economics Calendar API remains an essential resource for institutional and retail traders alike.

Conclusion:
With political heat rising and inflation softening, the July FOMC meeting has become a key event for global markets. Whether the Fed acts or waits could determine the trajectory for equities, bonds, and currency markets heading into the second half of 2025.