Revised Outlook for the S&P 500 Amid Rising Stagflation Risks

Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, has revised his outlook for the S&P 500, now forecasting a best-case scenario of 6000 by the end of 2025. His new assessment comes as he trims earnings expectations in response to increasing stagflation risks driven by U.S. tariff measures.

Key Revisions and Concerns

• Earnings Forecasts:
  Yardeni lowered his base-case earnings estimate for the S&P 500 to $260 per share for 2025, down from $275, and reduced the 2026 estimate to $300 from $320. These cuts reflect concerns over a potential growth recession coupled with squeezed profit margins.

• Tariff Impact:
  With new tariffs in place—such as a 25% levy on imported autos and parts starting in early April, alongside similar duties on steel and aluminum, and a potential flat 20% tariff on all imports—the risks of a stagflationary environment are on the rise. Yardeni now assigns a 45% probability to a stagflation outcome, up from 35%, and reduces the likelihood of his optimistic "Roaring 2020s" scenario to 55%.

• Price Targets:
  For 2025, Yardeni's target range for the S&P 500 is now between 5100 and 6000, with his base-case scenario ending at 6000. For 2026, the projected range is 5950 to 7000.

Market Implications

These adjustments underscore the growing unease in the near-term outlook for U.S. equities amid a volatile trade policy environment. Although the long-term theme of robust growth in the "Roaring 2020s" remains intact, the immediate challenges posed by tariff-related headwinds and the resulting risk of stagflation are causing analysts like Yardeni to adopt a more cautious stance.

For those interested in monitoring the underlying financial metrics driving these forecasts, detailed insights into S&P 500 earnings and performance trends are available via the Key Metrics (TTM) endpoint.