Telsey Advisory Group reiterated its Outperform rating and $1,100 price target on Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ: COST) ahead of the company's upcoming December sales report.

The firm said Costco was expected to release December sales results after market close on Wednesday, January 7. Telsey forecast total comparable sales growth of 2.2% for December 2025, down from 7.4% in the prior-year period. Excluding an estimated net benefit of approximately 20 basis points from gasoline prices and foreign exchange, the firm projected core merchandise comparable sales growth of 2.0%, compared with 9.9% a year earlier.

Within regions, Telsey expected U.S. comparable sales excluding gas to rise 1.0% versus 9.8% last year, while Canada comps excluding gas and FX were projected at 4.0% versus 10.3%. Other international markets were expected to post comps of 5.0% excluding FX, compared with 9.8% in the prior year.

The firm noted that gasoline prices declined in the low single-digit range during December, which was expected to create a roughly 20 basis point headwind to comps. However, a weaker U.S. dollar was expected to provide an estimated 40 basis point tailwind, based on recent currency trends.

Telsey projected traffic growth of 0.5%, down from 5.5% last year, as consumers continued to visit stores frequently in search of value. Average ticket growth was expected at 1.7%, roughly in line with the prior year, supported by tariff-related inflation and positive category trends.

Digital sales were forecast to increase 5.0%, compared with 34.4% last year, reflecting gains in non-food categories, ongoing benefits from assortment expansion—including CostcoNext.com—and targeted marketing around key events. Category trends were expected to be largely consistent with the company average, with non-food sales benefiting from holiday and gift-driven demand, while Food & Sundries and Fresh Foods were expected to remain solid due to at-home consumption trends and Costco's value-focused assortment.