Novo Nordisk Faces Guidance Risks as Wegovy Prescriptions Plateau and Competition Intensifies

Since launching its blockbuster weight-loss drug Wegovy in 2021, Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO) has repeatedly lifted its sales guidance. However, recent U.S. prescription data and the rise of Eli Lilly's Zepbound are prompting analysts to warn that the run may stall—and that Novo could cut its 2025 growth outlook when it reports Q1 results on May 7.

U.S. Prescriptions Plateau

• IQVIA Data: Weekly Wegovy scripts have flat-lined since mid-February, despite ramped-up shipments.

• Investor Concern: A sustained plateau raises questions over continued market penetration and patient retention rates.

Intensifying Competition

• Zepbound's Surge: Eli Lilly's rival shot outpaced Wegovy by 128,000 scripts in the week to April 11.

• Market Share Shift: Increased switching and sampling programs could suppress Novo's volume growth.

Guidance Under Pressure

• February Forecast: Novo called for 16-24% 2025 sales growth at constant FX—already a moderation from past years.

• Analyst Views:

  • Consensus (25 analysts): ~19% growth

  • Bank of America: Downgrade to 14-22%, the weakest since 2021

  • Bellevue's Lukas Leu: “I definitely see the possibility of a guidance cut.”

Trade-War Headwinds

• Tariff Risk: Products could face higher U.S. duties under Trump's trade measures, squeezing U.S. margins and complicating supply chains.

Monitor Novo's Revenue Trajectory

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