Oil Inches Up as OPEC+ Discord and Trade-Talk Uncertainty Weigh on Prices

Oil prices modestly rebounded on Thursday after a 2% drop, as investors balanced talk of higher OPEC+ output with mixed trade signals from Washington and ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear discussions.

Price Moves

• Brent (June) Futures: +$0.08 (0.12%) to $66.20/bbl

• WTI Futures: +$0.09 (0.14%) to $62.36/bbl

• Wednesday's Close: Both contracts down nearly 2%

OPEC+ Output Disagreement

• June Increase on the Table: Reuters sources say several members want a second consecutive monthly boost.

• Kazakhstan's Stance: Will prioritize “national interest” over OPEC+ quotas—reviving fears of a price war.

• Compliance Risk: With compliance already patchy, further discord could flood markets with excess supply.

Trade-War Tariff Signals

• Trump's Tariff Tone: White House may cut China duties to 50-60% to lure Beijing back to the table—but no firm offer.

• Investor Reaction: Mixed; hopes of de-escalation supported risk assets, but details remain vague, limiting oil's upside.

U.S.-Iran Nuclear Talks

• Diplomatic Developments: Expert-level discussions in Oman aim for a nuclear framework, but sanctions on Iran's LPG network keep energy tensions high.

• Supply Impact: Any progress could ease Middle East risk premia, while setbacks will reinforce safe-haven demand for oil.

What's Next for Oil Traders

1. OPEC+ Meeting (Early June)

   • Watch for formal output decisions and member compliance statements.

2. U.S. EIA Inventory Report (Tomorrow)

   • Weekly crude stocks data will confirm whether supplies are tightening.

3. Flash PMIs & Trade Announcements

   • U.S. and China releases for demand cues; tariff updates for policy risk.

Track Key Policy and Supply Events

Stay on top of upcoming OPEC+ meetings, U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, and major economic releases with the
🔗 Economics Calendar - Economics Data API
from Financial Modeling Prep.
This API provides real-time schedules and context for the policy and supply-related events driving oil volatility.